The Impact of the Proposed SOAR Initiative on the City of Oceanside

6/13/2018

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Voters in the City of Oceanside will be asked in November 2018 to consider an initiative, commonly known as the SOAR Initiative, which would require public approval for any change in the zoning of land currently designated for agriculture or open space. Because most open space used for parks and recreational activities is City-owned and already requires a vote of the people for any zoning change, the Initiative primarily involves the future of the 3,340 acres of agriculturally-zoned land in the northeast part of the City known as South Morro Hills.

The SOAR Initiative has many worthy goals, including protecting the environment, helping agriculture, and creating a City with a high quality of life. This study analyzes the direct and indirect effects the Initiative would produce, including some of the unintended consequences. The results would likely be very different from those envisioned by the individuals who drafted the Initiative and those who have supported it.

Key takeaways include the following:

Other communities adopting a SOAR Initiative or similar policies have suffered slower job gains and rising home prices. Ventura County, which has been the template for Oceanside’s Initiative, has shifted from a region outperforming the State to one of underperformance. Companies have departed the County in record numbers.
Oceanside faces a housing crisis, as home prices have been rising at a 10% pace during the past five years while wages have increased by less than 2.5% per year.
The City has achieved less than 15% of its State-mandated housing target for 2021, whereas it should be at more than 50% of its goal by now. The Initiative would make it exceedingly difficult for the City to achieve its future housing goals.
Companies’ primary constraint now involves the supply of workers, which in turn depends on the availability of housing. Without adequate housing businesses will be forced to either downsize or leave the City.

Download PDF Version to Read Remainder of Executive Summary and Entire Report

Download an additional Report by Mark Schniepp, Director of the California Economic Forecast

Don Miller

9/6/2018 11:23:20 am

I am an Oceanside voter unaffiliated with any organization that supports or opposes the local ballot initiative, Measure Y. I have read information provided by supporters of Measure Y, sometimes referred to as "SOAR", as well as a letter from Nagata Brothers Farms Inc., and Mellano & Company, hereinafter NBFMC, which opposes Measure Y. I have researched Measure Y and it does one thing - prevent zone changes of Oceanside open space, farmland, parks, and recreation areas without voter approval. This is all you need to know. If you want more info read on.
I believe the Oceanside City Council will oppose Measure Y because it restricts their power by preventing them from making zone changes without voter approval.
I believe NBFMC opposes Measure Y because it will hinder their ability to subdivide their land and build houses or commercial property, hurting their ability to profit from their land. I believe NBFMC's quote, "As a result our properties lose value," is accurate. I believe some quotes in NBFMC's letter, such as, "Without that value, we can't secure the financing we need to keep our farms working," are an exaggeration. A bank looks at land as collateral for its loan. If the bank forecloses, it will sell the land at its current value to recoup some or all of its loan. Thus, an appraiser will give little value to a potential zone change years in the future that may or may not occur..
I believe supporters of Measure Y want Oceanside voters to vote "Yes" because they are trying to add a layer of protection to prevent zone changes to the remaining open space, farmland, parks, and recreation areas within the city. I believe their quote, "Measure Y does not allow zoning changes in these areas without voter approval," is accurate. I believe the quote, "Yes on Y will preserve our open space, farmland, parks and recreation areas..." is an exaggeration. There is no guarantee that passage of Measure Y will preserve these areas. Oceanside voters could vote to allow a park or farmland to be rezoned for development.
I distinguish an exaggeration, which embellishes the organization’s claims, from deceptive or false statements, which are intentionally misleading. I do not believe that any statements in the literature by supporters of Measure Y are deceptive or false. I believe there are several deceptive or false statements in the letter from NBFMC, including but not limited to, "The measure was sold to our Oceanside neighbors under false pretenses," "You may have been told that Measure Y protects open space and parks, yet that is false," "This deceptive measure does nothing to protect park lands,...," "Even worse, this misleading measure threatens the viability of every farm. Rather than protect agricultural land, Measure Y encourages our city's farmland to be developed...," "For the wealthy homeowners backing Measure Y, the real goal may be to make Oceanside an enclave for the very rich…."
The website for supporters of Measure Y is www.Oceanside-SOAR.org
The website for NBFMC, which opposes Measure Y, is www.KeepFarmingOceanside.org
I have not been coerced by any organization nor am I receiving any compensation for writing this letter. I intend it solely to help Oceanside voters make an informed decision about Measure Y.
Sincerely,
Don Miller

Melissa Peterson

10/24/2018 09:38:12 am

Mr Miller you are completely wrong when you say an appraiser would give no value to a potential zoning change. An appraiser develops the highest and best use of the property as part of an appraisal. Part of that determination is what are the legal uses of that property. If an appraiser were to determine that SFR estate lots is the highest and best of the property, and that zoning change is in the works, you can bet your bottom dollar that the bank would retain that property until it can sell at a higher value. You're using a great deal of the language that the SOAR people are using. I suspect that your comment about being "unaffiliated" is not true, but that is just my opinion.

10/24/2018 04:38:04 pm

Hi Ms. Peterson,
Thank you for your comments. REOs on a bank's balance sheet are a liability, and adversely impact how much a bank can borrow and lend. Your comment, "...you can bet your bottom dollar that the bank would retain that property until it can sell at a higher value," is likely incorrect, however there are rare cases where a bank might retain an REO if it thought a sizable profit could be made in the future.

Your comment, "...you are completely wrong when you say an appraiser would give no value to a potential zoning change," is also incorrect. If you read my comments, I wrote, "Thus, an appraiser will give little value to a potential zone change years in the future that may or may not occur." Your comment "...and that zoning change is in the works," is misleading because I described a potential zone change years in the future.

I am unaffiliated with any party for or against Measure Y. Check it...

Sincerely,
Don Miller

Jayelle Sargent

9/10/2018 08:19:34 am

Thank you Mr. Miller. I am interested to know what are the legal sources from which you gathered your information?

9/10/2018 10:36:20 am

Hi Ms. Sargent,
I used no legal sources. The comments are my own beliefs.
Thanks,
Don

Editor

10/23/2018 08:49:30 am

Don,
The Coast News would like to use your comment for a Community Commentary in our weekly paper. Please contact our office at 760-436-9737 if you are interested. Thanks for your consideration.

Comments are closed.

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