We need to re-evaluate which companies and functions are listed as essential. People must take social distancing more seriously. The shelter in place mandate must be stricter. I realize that may mean a more significant effect on our economy, but as a health care provider, my concern is about the health and well-being of my doctors, nurses and support staff, as well as that of my own family. And yours.
If we in San Diego get hit like some other communities have, we are going to experience the same awful scenarios they are. In New York, a 30-year-old nurse just died from COVID 19. 250 police officers called in sick today.
Our own projections show Scripps overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients in a matter of weeks if we don’t take stronger action. With 30% success in social distancing we will flatten the curve but by June we could have up to 8,000 concurrent patients requiring care just at Scripps for our 1,200 beds. Without any social distancing or other mitigation efforts we are projecting the need to care for over 12,000 patients concurrently at the peak, far exceeding our 1,200 beds.
And yes, we are worried about being able to protect our own employees and physicians in this situation. We have gone outside our normal supply ordering processes and gone directly to China for orders. Even those are being delayed.
We talked to leadership at a New York hospital today and asked them what they would do if they could go back in time to where we in San Diego are now. They said, ‘People need to take this seriously. Many people assumed it just affected the elderly. We are now seeing 30- to 40-year-olds in the hospital. Ask everyone to heed social distancing and take this seriously.’
Bill Gates came out and said this country needs to basically shut itself down for six weeks or so. And he’s right. The best defense is a good offense. It’s not too late. We’re not going to be able to stop this virus completely, but if all of us do our part now, we can minimize its impact on our community.
Complacency is the enemy.
ABOUT SCRIPPS HEALTH
Founded in 1924 by philanthropist Ellen Browning Scripps, Scripps Health is a nonprofit integrated health care delivery system based in San Diego, Calif. Scripps treats more than 750,000 patients annually through the dedication of 3,000 affiliated physicians and more than 15,000 employees among its five acute-care hospital campuses, home health care services, 28 outpatient centers and clinics, and hundreds of affiliated physician offices throughout the region.
Recognized as a leader in disease and injury prevention, diagnosis and treatment, Scripps is also at the forefront of clinical research. With three highly respected graduate medical education programs, Scripps is a longstanding member of the Association of American Medical Colleges. Scripps has been ranked five times as one of the nation’s best health care systems by Truven Health Analytics. Its hospitals are ranked No. 1 in San Diego County and among the best in the nation by U.S. News & World Report. Scripps also is regularly recognized by Fortune and Working Mother magazine as one of the best places in the nation to work. More information can be found at www.scripps.org.